专访加州大学伯克利分校政治经济学教授巴里·艾肯格林：未来“去美元化”或会加速 人民币国际化在做正确的事

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with increasing skepticism about the dollar's safe-haven status and a shift towards a more diversified cross-border payment system [1][5]. Group 1: International Monetary System Changes - Barry Eichengreen emphasizes that the international monetary system will continue to evolve, moving towards a more digital direction [1]. - The dollar's status as a safe haven is being questioned due to U.S. government actions, potentially accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" [1][5]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from over 70% at the beginning of the century to just below 60% currently [4]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Inflation - Eichengreen notes that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maintain low and stable inflation and high employment, with current inflation at 2.9% year-on-year as of August [2]. - Concerns are raised about the potential for inflation to remain above 2%, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policies [2][3]. Group 3: Impact of Government Policies - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed crucial, with current government actions posing risks to price stability and the dollar's safe-haven status [3]. - The volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is attributed to government policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs, which have led to a significant increase in bond yields [3]. Group 4: Cryptocurrency and Digital Payments - Eichengreen discusses the varying impacts of cryptocurrencies on the international monetary system, noting that stablecoins may play a role in future cross-border payments [6]. - The development of a robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is considered essential to mitigate risks associated with unregulated markets [7]. Group 5: Renminbi Internationalization - The approach taken by Chinese authorities to promote the internationalization of the renminbi is viewed as correct, focusing initially on cross-border trade settlements and building a global clearing system [8]. - Future efforts should continue to be cautious and patient, as the internationalization of the renminbi is a gradual process [8].