市场风格悄然切换基金重仓股“由小变大”

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and a focus on performance certainty amid rising risk aversion [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has risen by 4.33% in the past month, reaching a new high for the year, while the CSI 2000 Index and the North Exchange 50 Index have declined by 6.77% and 0.25%, respectively, indicating a market style switch [1][2]. - Since the "9·24 market" in 2024, the CSI 2000 Index had previously outperformed the SSE 50 Index by 109.65%, but recently it has underperformed by approximately 5 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers believe that the current market conditions are prompting a shift towards larger market capitalization stocks due to the pursuit of performance certainty and heightened risk aversion [1][3]. - Recent dividend announcements from several small-cap funds reflect fund managers' intentions to lock in profits, with notable distributions such as 0.87 yuan per 10 shares from the Jianxin CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A fund and 4 yuan per 10 shares from the Wanji North Exchange Selected fund [2]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The liquidity cycle in the A-share market is characterized by four stages, with the current phase likely being the end of the initial expansion stage, suggesting a potential return to large-cap stocks as institutional funds enter the market [3][6]. - The market has seen a "dumbbell structure" where funds have concentrated on either low-valuation large-cap stocks or small-cap stocks, leaving mid-cap stocks under pressure [3]. Group 4: Fund Positioning - Many high-performing funds are transitioning their holdings from small-cap to large-cap stocks, reflecting a broader trend of "shifting from small to large" [4][5]. - For instance, the Yongying Technology Smart Selection fund has shifted its focus from small-cap growth stocks to larger growth stocks, indicating a significant change in investment strategy [4]. Group 5: Institutional Factors - Institutional changes, such as the upcoming new regulations on performance benchmarks for public funds, are expected to reinforce the trend towards large-cap stocks [6]. - The valuation of large-cap stocks, particularly the CSI 300 Index, shows that they are undervalued with a PE and PB rolling 5-year percentile of 42.85% and 40.12%, respectively, suggesting strong defensive characteristics [6].