美联储本周料连续降息，但内部裂痕恐阻挠后续宽松之路

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the second consecutive time to support a weak job market, but there are concerns among some officials about the potential overreach of rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The futures market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with expectations for further cuts in December and March of next year [2] - Following a 25 basis point cut in September, the Fed is anticipated to lower rates two more times by the end of the year [1][2] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about the aggressive market pricing of future rate cuts, indicating a potential divergence from market expectations [2][6] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Recent consumer price index data shows that core inflation in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level in three months, but overall inflation remains stagnant, complicating the case for multiple future rate cuts [1][2] - Officials acknowledge a slowdown in hiring activity and express worries about inflation pressures stemming from non-tariff factors, including a significant drop in immigration affecting labor supply [3][4] - Inflation rates have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over four years, with expectations that it may not return to target until 2028, raising concerns about long-term inflation expectations [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Credibility - The current government shutdown has disrupted the release of official economic data, making it challenging for Fed officials to assess the economic landscape [6] - There is a notable divide among Fed officials regarding the economic outlook, with some calling for caution in rate cuts due to conflicting signals between strong economic growth and a weak job market [6]