Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-27 00:50Core Viewpoint - The current selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair under the Trump administration is primarily between Waller and Hassett, with market probabilities indicating Hassett is currently leading [1] Group 1: Candidates and Market Implications - Waller and Hassett are viewed as the "most suitable" and "most compliant" candidates respectively for the Federal Reserve Chair position [1] - Market expectations suggest that if Hassett is selected, it could lead to a perception of "loss of independence" for the Federal Reserve, negatively impacting overall dollar assets and positively affecting gold [1] - If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade indicating a "loss of independence" for the Federal Reserve, which would be bullish for overall dollar assets and bearish for gold, while reducing expectations for interest rate cuts next year [1] Group 2: Trust and Interview Dynamics - Trump has a high level of trust in Bessen, suggesting that Bessen's involvement in the interview process could create a divergence in market expectations regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Historical precedents of market reactions to Federal Reserve appointments indicate that the selection process could significantly influence investor sentiment and asset allocation strategies [1]