煤炭旺季需求显韧性，关注全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the resilience of coal demand during the peak season, driven by the La Niña phenomenon and supply constraints, leading to unexpected increases in coal prices [1] - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port reached 780 RMB/ton, reflecting a 22 RMB/ton increase from the previous week [1] - The NOAA predicts that the La Niña phenomenon may persist from December 2025 to February 2026, increasing the likelihood of colder winters in central and eastern China, which is expected to boost coal consumption [1] Group 2 - The coal supply is contracting significantly due to government interventions aimed at reducing overproduction, with national coal output in July and August at 3.8 billion tons and 3.9 billion tons, respectively, below the average monthly output of approximately 4 billion tons over the past 18 months [2] - In August, the industrial raw coal output was 3.9 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while the output is expected to remain between 3.9 billion to 4 billion tons per month from September to December, with an annual output forecast of around 4.75 billion tons, down by 30 to 50 million tons year-on-year [2] - Coal imports have also declined, with shipments to China in the first two weeks of October 2025 at 9.85 million tons, a 14.4% decrease from September and a 43.7% drop compared to the same period last year [2] - The coal market is expected to remain strong due to sustained demand in winter and ongoing supply disruptions, with the coal ETF (515220) attracting significant inflows, totaling over 1 billion RMB in the last 10 days [2]