美国学者：中国经济下一个五年，稳定、创新与信心的交汇点丨世界观

Core Insights - The core task of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is to discuss the blueprint for China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), focusing on high-quality development, technological self-reliance, expanding domestic demand, reducing regional disparities, and deepening market-government coordination [1][2] Policy Direction - The session is expected to be a "pre-emptive adjustment" rather than a "directional change," refining existing strategies and setting measurable indicators and pragmatic goals for the next five years [2] - The meeting aims to release policy signals of predictability, coordination, and stability to the market, emphasizing stronger policy predictability and measures to boost market and public confidence [2][5] Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding 66 trillion yuan, showcasing resilience and potential amid a globally sluggish economy [2] - The outcomes of the session are anticipated to institutionalize this steady progress further [2] Consumption and Investment Initiatives - A series of policy initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and investment are expected, including enhancing resident income growth, improving the market environment, and refining the social security system [3] - These measures will run parallel to technological self-reliance and industrial upgrades, forming a dual engine for the transformation of China's economy from "quantity" to "quality" [3] Technological Focus - The session is likely to provide clearer support for domestic technologies, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing, to ensure China takes the lead in the new round of technological competition [4] - The development of new quality productivity has been prioritized as a strategic focus, with the session providing a policy framework for top-level design [4] Foreign Investment Strategy - China's foreign strategy will focus on stable openness, with potential measures to reduce institutional constraints, improve policy communication, and strengthen foreign investment confidence [4] - There is an expectation to shorten the negative list for foreign investment access, expand service sector openness, and enhance intellectual property protection and business legal environment [4] Overall Economic Outlook - Post-session, China's economic landscape is expected to reflect a "steady progress, quality victory" approach, responding to external concerns through clear planning to enhance market confidence and gradual reforms to boost domestic demand [5] - The dual drive of technology and institutional reforms will continuously inject new momentum into China's economy [5]