钢材期货行情展望：钢材表需修复较好 供应端开始减产 高库存压力缓解

Price and Basis - The price center has slightly increased this week, with Shanghai rebar at 3040 yuan, Beijing rebar at 3040 yuan, and Guangzhou rebar at 3000 yuan; Shanghai rebar basis at -6 yuan; Shanghai hot rolled at 3300 yuan, Lecong hot rolled at 3270 yuan, and Shanghai hot rolled basis at 50 yuan. Rebar basis has strengthened while hot rolled basis has weakened. The inter-period price difference has weakened, with the 1-5 price difference declining [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, the operating rate and daily output of coal mines in the Steel Union sample remain low, year-on-year at a low level; raw coal and coking coal inventories are in a destocking phase. Iron ore demand remains high with slight inventory accumulation. Recently, steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with iron element costs decreasing and carbon element costs supported. Current profits from high to low are: steel billet > hot rolled > rebar > cold rolled [1] Supply - From January to September, iron element output increased by 5% year-on-year. Due to last year's high base in Q4, the annual growth rate is expected to narrow. There are signs of reduced iron water production, down by 10,000 tons to 2.39 million tons. This year, the incremental iron water is more directed towards steel billets and non-major materials, with major materials' output year-on-year remaining flat and limited growth. Since October, major materials' output has been running low, with a recent increase of 84,000 tons to 8.65 million tons (required 8.92 million tons). Among them, rebar output increased by 60,000 tons to 2.07 million tons, below the required amount (2.26 million tons). Hot rolled output increased by 6,000 tons to 3.225 million tons, slightly below the required amount (3.27 million tons). Previously, Tangshan had significant sintering production cuts, and market news indicates that due to environmental pressures, blast furnaces will limit production for a week next week [1] Demand - In terms of demand structure, domestic demand expectations remain weak; however, there is an expectation of policy support in Q4 (on the 18th, the Ministry of Finance announced the early issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit). Exports remain high, and recent price declines support steel exports. During the National Day holiday, the required demand saw an out-of-season decline, but post-holiday demand continues to recover, with this period's required demand increasing by 17 to 8.92 million tons. Non-major materials' required demand remains flat compared to September; steel exports are temporarily stable, and the demand side has not collapsed. Year-on-year, due to last year's high basis in Q4, achieving a year-on-year increase in required demand this year is challenging. Among them, rebar required demand increased by 60,000 tons to 2.26 million tons; hot rolled required demand increased by 110,000 tons to 3.267 million tons [2] Inventory - The inventory of major materials decreased by 270,000 tons to 15.548 million tons; among them, rebar decreased by 186,000 tons to 6.22 million tons; hot rolled decreased by 40,000 tons to 4.15 million tons. Considering that the required demand has been restored to 8.927 million tons, and current production is below required demand, it is expected that the inventory center will maintain a year-on-year increase but show a declining trend month-on-month. From the destocking slope perspective, the destocking slope for rebar has steepened year-on-year, while the destocking slope for hot rolled is relatively gentle; attention should be paid to the progress of future production cuts in Tangshan [2] Outlook - This week, the required demand for major materials has recovered well, approaching last year's level. However, the year-on-year demand for off-market materials is relatively low. Currently, there is significant inventory accumulation for flat products (hot rolled, strip steel, galvanized), with strip steel experiencing two weeks of production cuts, leading to a shift to destocking. Following the sintering production cuts in Tangshan, there are limited production expectations for blast furnaces. If blast furnace production cuts can alleviate flat product inventory pressure, steel prices are expected to stabilize. On the cost side, carbon element costs are supported, while iron ore is expected to see slight inventory accumulation due to declining iron water expectations, which is anticipated to affect the material-mining ratio. Steel prices have declined significantly in the previous period, and steel mill profits have decreased. Before the inventory of flat products is alleviated, steel mill profits will continue to decline, suppressing production release. The January contract for rebar and hot rolled is expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan, respectively, transitioning to a range-bound trend. The current strategy suggests to remain cautious. The long coal and short hot rolled arbitrage can continue to be held. Considering the recovery of hot rolled required demand to high levels and the expected production cuts in Tangshan, it is advisable to gradually exit the short position on the rebar-hot rolled spread. Until the steel production and inventory are cleared, steel mill profits will continue to converge [3]