【债市观察】股强债弱收益率“N”形走高 MLF加量续做维持流动性充裕

Core Viewpoint - The financial market experienced a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment, with the stock market continuing to strengthen, as the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in over ten years. The bond market saw an overall pullback, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.4 basis points to 1.85% [1] Market Overview - The bond market saw fluctuations in yields across various maturities, with the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 30-year, and 50-year government bond yields changing by 2.82 BP, -0.17 BP, 1.54 BP, 2.75 BP, 3.72 BP, 2.4 BP, 1.24 BP, and 3.5 BP respectively from October 17 to October 24, 2025 [2] - The 10-year government bond yield experienced a notable increase, particularly on October 20, where it rose by 2.05 BP to 1.768% due to poor auction results [2][3] Monetary Policy - The central bank announced that it would continue to inject liquidity into the market, maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance, with the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) being increased for the eighth consecutive month [1][11] - The central bank's operations included a total of 867.2 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, indicating ongoing efforts to manage liquidity [11] Economic Indicators - The third quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.2%, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries showing growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4% respectively [13] - The total balance of RMB loans by financial institutions reached 270.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [14] International Market - The U.S. Treasury yields exhibited a V-shaped trend, with the 10-year yield stabilizing at 4.01% after a decline earlier in the week [8] - The U.S. federal government debt surpassed 38 trillion dollars, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges [10] Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the bond market may continue to experience a range-bound trading pattern due to uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations and monetary policy adjustments [15][16] - There is a growing interest in credit bonds, which are perceived to offer some protection against interest rate fluctuations, although institutional investors remain cautious due to market conditions [17]