丰倍生物即将登陆A股，增收不增利难题待解

Core Viewpoint - Fengbei Bio is set to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, facing a paradox of rising revenue but declining net profit, indicating challenges in profitability and cash flow despite growth in sales [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Fengbei Bio expects revenue to reach 1.948 billion yuan, a 12.7% increase, while net profit is projected to decline by 4.5% to 124 million yuan, marking the second consecutive year of profit decrease [7] - The company's gross margin fell from 13.95% in 2023 to 11.67% in 2024, with net margin also decreasing from 7.50% to 6.37% [7] - Operating cash flow is projected to drop sharply from 162 million yuan in 2023 to only 22 million yuan in 2024, indicating a significant decline in cash generation ability [7][8] IPO and Expansion Plans - Fengbei Bio plans to raise approximately 1.04 billion yuan through its IPO to fund an expansion project aimed at producing 428,200 tons of oil-based biological materials and fuels annually, with a construction period of about two years [1][2] - The project is expected to generate an additional annual revenue of approximately 3.944 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity, nearly doubling the company's 2024 revenue [2] Market Demand and Competition - The International Energy Agency projects global biodiesel consumption to reach 59.93 million tons by 2028, growing at an annual rate of 7.16% [4] - However, the biodiesel industry faces intense competition, with many companies planning large-scale expansions, potentially leading to oversupply and downward pressure on prices and margins [4][12] New Business Ventures - The expansion project also includes plans for producing 60,000 tons of agricultural microbial agents and compound fertilizers, utilizing glycerol, a byproduct of biodiesel production [4][5] - This diversification aims to enhance value and mitigate risks, although the profitability model for this new venture remains uncertain [5] Dependency on Tax Incentives - Fengbei Bio's profitability is significantly supported by tax incentives, with VAT refunds accounting for 13.20% of total profit in 2023, which is expected to drop to 5.14% in 2024 [8] - The company's reliance on tax benefits raises concerns about the stability of its profit margins in the absence of such support [8] Export Market Vulnerabilities - The company heavily relies on overseas markets, with Switzerland and Singapore accounting for about 70% of its exports in 2024, making it vulnerable to policy changes in these regions [10] - Fluctuations in exchange rates and compliance costs pose additional risks to the company's financial performance [10][11] Supply Chain Challenges - Fengbei Bio's raw material supply is unstable, with a notable reliance on individual suppliers for waste oil, which poses quality and compliance risks [11] - The company is exploring alternative sources for waste oil, including imports from Southeast Asia, but faces uncertainties related to costs and regulatory changes [11] Industry Position - In the competitive landscape, Fengbei Bio's scale and profitability are only average compared to peers, with notable differences in net profit levels among industry players [12] - The company must navigate the interplay of policy benefits, expansion pace, and market risks to sustain its growth trajectory [13]