招银国际：明年美联储或进一步减息两次 明年底联邦基金利率目标降至3.25%-3.5%

Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the U.S. CPI in September showed a slight recovery year-on-year, but it was below market expectations. The core CPI experienced a slowdown month-on-month, primarily due to a drop in used car prices, while prices of imported goods rebounded significantly, reflecting ongoing tariff effects [1]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The inflation rebound was less than anticipated, leading the Federal Reserve to focus more on employment risks, with expectations of a potential rate cut in October or December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4% [1]. - The October CPI is likely to be suspended, and based on historical data from 2013, the first CPI data after a long hiatus may show significant deviations due to limited sample data, increasing uncertainty regarding the timing of rate cuts [1]. Banking System and Future Projections - As the banking system's reserves approach a reasonable level of abundance, the Federal Reserve may soon halt quantitative tightening (QT) [1]. - Looking ahead to next year, as economic growth stabilizes and inflation declines, the Federal Reserve may implement two additional rate cuts, with a year-end target for the federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% [1].