Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2025 presents challenges due to high volatility, but this does not alter the trend of listed banks deepening their precious metals business, supported by global central banks increasing gold reserves [1] Policy and Market Environment - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase of 40,000 ounces from August, continuing an 11-month growth trend [1] - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in the next 12 months [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau's pilot program for insurance funds to invest in gold creates new opportunities for banks to provide services to insurance institutions, enhancing their middle-income business [2] Business Dynamics and Revenue Contribution - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with gold jewelry consumption down 26% and gold bars and coins up 23.69% [3] - The demand for gold bars and coins reflects a growing need for gold as a hedge and store of value, positioning banks as key channels for these products [3] - The decline in gold jewelry consumption may lead banks to focus more on investment-type precious metals business, enhancing revenue stability [3] Risks and Outlook - High volatility in the gold market poses a significant challenge for listed banks, testing their risk control capabilities in proprietary trading and client asset preservation [4] - Future profitability from precious metals will depend on banks' ability to establish robust risk management systems and optimize asset allocation [4] - Banks with strong risk control and market-making capabilities are likely to strengthen their competitive position and expand market share [4]
国盛证券：银行贵金属业务有望成重要增长极 红利策略或仍有持续性
智通财经网·2025-10-27 03:03