LME和国内库存偏低下 铜价有望延续偏强运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in copper futures, which have shown a slight increase of 1.76% to 88,400.00 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two more cuts within the year; the "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to stimulate U.S. fiscal policy, leading to a macro environment of dual easing in both fiscal and monetary policies [1] Supply and Production - According to Jinrui Futures, production disruptions at Indonesia's Grasberg mine have exceeded expectations, and TECK's mines have also revised down their production guidance, reinforcing the logic of raw material tightness; domestic smelting maintenance has increased in October, maintaining expectations for a downward shift in smelting output [1] Demand Analysis - Hualian Futures indicates that the traditional peak season is nearing its end, leading to a potential decline in copper downstream operating rates, primarily affected by sluggish performance in construction materials, home appliances, and real estate; however, demand from the new energy sector remains strong [1] Market Outlook - Wuzhong Futures suggests that progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, coupled with weak U.S. inflation data, are likely to result in a dovish stance from the Fed, maintaining a generally positive market sentiment; on the supply side, expectations for tight copper raw material supply, along with low LME and domestic inventories, indicate that copper prices are likely to continue a strong performance [1]