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华福证券：情绪助推猪价反弹 关注二育进场持续性
智通财经网·2025-10-27 06:15

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pig prices is driven by emotional factors and seasonal consumption recovery, with a focus on the sustainability of secondary fattening entry [2][3] Pig Farming Sector - The concentration of large pig sales has led to a decrease in large pig inventory, widening the price gap and increasing the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, with a sales proportion of 2.09% from October 11-20, up by 1.07 percentage points [1][2] - The national average pig price on October 24 was 11.81 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.63 yuan/kg week-on-week [2] - The average weight of pigs sold continues to decline, with an average weight of 127.90 kg for the week of October 24, down by 0.35 kg week-on-week [2] - Long-term expectations indicate a downward shift in pig prices, with increasing losses in farming and enhanced expectations for capacity reduction policies, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in the price center [1][3] Cattle Sector - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, while long-term trends suggest a potential upward cycle for beef prices due to previous long-term losses leading to capacity clearance [4] Dairy Sector - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.04 yuan/kg as of October 17, remaining stable week-on-week but down 31% from the cyclical high [4] - The ongoing losses in raw milk are expected to drive continued capacity reduction, potentially stabilizing prices in the future [4] Poultry Sector - The price of white chickens remains stable, with a price of 6.88 yuan/kg as of October 24, reflecting a slight increase week-on-week [5] - Egg prices have decreased, with an average price of 6.06 yuan/kg, while chick prices remain stable [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have rebounded from a low, with a current price of 2984 yuan/ton as of October 24, down by 26 yuan/ton week-on-week [7] - The futures market for soybean meal showed a recovery, with the main contract closing at 2933 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton week-on-week [7]