【央行圆桌汇】美联储降息几成定局（2025年10月27日）

Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to expand its macro-prudential and financial stability functions to maintain stability in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [1] - The Federal Reserve plans to ease capital requirements for large banks, with the new proposal expected to increase overall capital by 3%-7%, lower than the previous 9% proposal [2] - The Bank of Japan indicates that the economy and inflation are in line with expectations, with potential for interest rate hikes later this year, although no clear basis for immediate hikes exists [2] - The Swiss National Bank has published its interest rate decision meeting minutes for the first time, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriate under various circumstances [2] - The Bank of Korea maintains its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the third consecutive time due to concerns over rising real estate prices and mortgage loan growth [3] - The Central Bank of Turkey has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 39.5%, marking the third rate cut since July [3] - The Bank of Indonesia has unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75%, aligning with inflation expectations [3] - Argentina's central bank has signed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the U.S. Treasury [4] Market Observations - Citic Securities reports that the U.S. September CPI was below expectations, with overall inflation remaining stable, which may reinforce expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Moody's economists suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate this week due to weak trade performance and domestic demand [5] - Australian inflation data is set to be released, with expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may not cut rates again this year due to rising prices [6] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Financial Street Forum will take place from October 27 to 30 [8] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report on Wednesday [8] - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference on Thursday [8] - The European Central Bank will also announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference on Thursday [8]