Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a new historical high of 28.96 HKD, driven by positive market sentiment and forecasts regarding aluminum supply and demand dynamics [1] Industry Summary - According to Huatai Securities, the global primary aluminum supply-demand gap is projected to be -59.1 million tons in 2025 and -84.3 million tons in 2026, indicating a tightening market. It is expected that the LME aluminum price may exceed 3200 USD/ton by 2026 [1] - The domestic supply constraints are expected to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, leading to a significant narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international aluminum prices, with domestic prices likely to perform more strongly [1] Company Summary - Tianfeng Securities notes that the tightening supply-demand landscape is significantly improving the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry, with high profits expected to continue. This improvement in profitability is also reflected in the performance of electrolytic aluminum companies [1] - With the limitation on domestic supply, the peak of capital expenditure for electrolytic aluminum companies has passed. Leading companies like China Hongqiao are gradually implementing stable dividend policies, and there is a noticeable trend of increasing dividends across the electrolytic aluminum sector this year [1] - The current electrolytic aluminum stocks are transitioning from traditional cyclical commodities to high-quality, scarce assets characterized by price elasticity and dividend support [1]
港股异动 | 中国宏桥(01378)涨超4%继续创新高 机构称全球电解铝供需缺口或进一步扩大