休闲零食赛道：从渠道变革到10亿级大单品之路

Overview of the Snack Food Sector - The A-share snack food sector has 23 companies, with Wancheng Group leading at a weight of 15.5% and a total market value of 24.8 billion [1][2] - The top 20 companies in the snack food sector have a combined market value of approximately 150 billion, significantly lower than the liquor sector, where Kweichow Moutai alone exceeds 2 trillion [2] Industry Characteristics - Snack foods are inherently less addictive compared to alcoholic beverages, and brands are still in the early stages of consumer recognition [3][5] - The snack food industry is characterized by high dependence on distribution channels, with traditional supermarkets shrinking at an annual rate of 8% [6][9] - The snack food sector has a market size exceeding 1 trillion, but the top ten companies only hold about 20% market share, much lower than the liquor and dairy sectors [7] Market Challenges - The snack food index has underperformed the overall consumer index from 2021 to 2024 due to three main pressures: shrinking traditional retail channels, low margins in bulk sales, and a price war leading to reduced profits [9][13] - The average price drop in the snack food industry reached 12% in 2023, with a corresponding 5% increase in sales volume, resulting in a profit squeeze [13] - Online price transparency has intensified competition, with leading companies experiencing a decline in online gross margins by 8-10 percentage points [13] Company Types and Performance - Domestic snack companies can be categorized into channel-based and product-based companies, with the former relying heavily on distribution channels and the latter focusing on product differentiation [14][16] - Product-based companies like Salted Fish and Jin Zai Food have shown faster growth, while channel-based companies like Liangpin Shop and Lai Yi Fen have faced significant declines [17] Case Studies - Three squirrels have seen a revenue rebound starting in Q4 2023, with Douyin channel revenue reaching 2.188 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 81.7% [21] - However, they face challenges such as high traffic costs and low offline distribution margins, with a gross margin of only 15-18% [24] - Salted Fish's "Big Demon King" single product achieved over 100 million in monthly sales in March 2025, indicating successful product differentiation [42] Future Outlook - Channel-based companies should focus on cost-effective branding, while product-based companies should aim for super single products in niche categories [49] - The competition will increasingly involve both comprehensive snack brands and channel brands, necessitating a strong brand identity to withstand competition from private label products [49]