Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in coal prices is primarily driven by supply contraction due to production inspections, leading to an unexpected rebound in electricity coal demand during the seasonal transition in October [1][2]. Supply Side - Since July 2025, the monthly year-on-year decline in national raw coal production has been 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% respectively, with expectations of further supply contraction due to upcoming safety production assessments in November [1][2]. - The tightening of supply is exacerbated by stricter environmental inspections and production halts in various regions, including the Ulanqab area and Shanxi province [3]. Demand Side - With the drop in temperatures in southern regions, electricity consumption is expected to rise, particularly as northern areas begin heating earlier than usual, leading to increased demand for coal [2]. - The anticipated peak winter demand is expected to push coal prices back above 900 yuan per ton by the end of the year [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment targets include high spot price elasticity stocks such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining, as well as stable growth companies like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co., Ltd. [4]. - Companies benefiting from nuclear power growth, such as CGN Mining, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4].
民生证券：煤价持续上涨 短期或涨势暂缓、蓄力旺季涨价动能
智通财经网·2025-10-27 07:01