超级央行周来袭！美联储预计再降息，日央行、欧央行料按兵不动

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The concept of "K-shaped economy" highlights significant disparities in economic performance among different demographic groups and industries in the U.S. [1][4] - Despite signs of weakness in the labor market, U.S. GDP growth remains resilient, influenced by factors such as tariff policies, wealth inequality, and the impact of artificial intelligence [4] - The optimistic scenario suggests that fiscal stimulus measures in the first half of next year could improve the economic conditions for low-income households, potentially narrowing the "K-shaped" gap [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [3][5] - Market expectations are for two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, influenced by recent weak labor market data and lower-than-expected inflation [3][4] - There is internal disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the future of rate cuts, with some expressing concerns about rising inflation [5] Group 3: International Central Bank Policies - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain its current policy stance but may signal a hawkish shift in the future, with potential rate hikes forming by December [6][8] - The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, with recent inflation data showing stability and economic activity improving [9][10] - The Bank of Canada is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points due to a combination of rising inflation and economic slowdown, with expectations of maintaining rates at 2.25% until the end of next year [10][11]