Big Tech’s next earnings test: power and patience

Core Insights - The current capital expenditure (capex) surge among major tech companies is driven by the need to expand AI infrastructure, with Microsoft projecting over $30 billion in capex this quarter and Alphabet increasing its 2025 spending plan to around $85 billion [1][2] Group 1: Market Impact - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, collectively account for approximately 45% of the Nasdaq 100's value and a quarter of the S&P 500's, indicating their significant influence on U.S. equity markets [2] - Analysts view the current spending as a foundational shift towards AI, predicting nearly $3 trillion in AI-driven enterprise and government spending over the next three years, likening it to a structural boom rather than a speculative bubble [4][8] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Meta plans to spend up to $72 billion next year on data-center retrofits and AI infrastructure, while Amazon's AWS investment continues to grow alongside its advertising business, which generates $15 billion in quarterly profits [7] - Microsoft is expected to report strong Azure performance, with a focus on how much new capacity is currently being utilized versus what is pending due to power grid limitations [13] - Alphabet acknowledges that customer demand exceeds supply, leading to accelerated buildouts that may compress margins until new infrastructure is operational [9] Group 3: Infrastructure Challenges - Super Micro Computer's revenue forecast was cut from $7 billion to $5 billion due to delayed shipments, highlighting logistical challenges in the AI supply chain [3] - The infrastructure cycle is facing delays due to transformer shortages and utility connection issues, with median data-center projects taking longer than expected to become operational [11] - Companies are experiencing "temporary capacity constraints," which may indicate that they have expanded faster than the infrastructure can support [10][12] Group 4: Earnings Expectations - This week's earnings reports will serve as a critical test for these companies, with a focus on their ability to convert heavy investments into revenue [19] - Analysts are looking for specific updates on capacity timing and the impact of AI on advertising yields, as well as consumer spending trends from Apple [18][20] - The overall expectation is for solid revenue growth, but with squeezed margins, as companies navigate the balance between investment and immediate returns [17][21]