Janvier: Earnings are what will drive the market, not just trade talks

Earnings Focus - The current market focus is primarily on earnings reports from major companies like Alpha, Meta, and Microsoft, which are expected to influence market performance significantly [1] - The sentiment around trade talks is also impacting market dynamics, with the expectation that these discussions will mitigate extreme outcomes [2][4] Trade Talks and Market Sentiment - The ongoing trade talks are seen as crucial for establishing a framework that could lead to a more stable market environment, although the specifics of these talks are not yet available [3][4] - The immediate market sentiment is prioritized over detailed outcomes, as investors are currently more concerned with avoiding extreme scenarios [4] Inflation and Consumer Impact - Recent data indicates a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), which may affect consumer spending patterns, particularly among lower-income households [4][5] - The end of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits is anticipated to increase inflationary pressures on retailers like Walmart and Target, which may pass these costs onto consumers [6][7] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to influence market risk appetite, with indications that the Fed may continue to ease monetary policy [8] - There is a growing trend towards increased risk appetite in the market, particularly among small-cap stocks, as investors anticipate further easing from the Fed [9]