国泰海通：煤炭板块周期底部确认

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in the supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Short-term supply and demand factors have cumulatively influenced coal prices, leading to an unexpected increase [1] - Since the price increase began on September 15, coal prices have exceeded 770 yuan per ton as of last Friday [1] - The current coal price is approaching a short-term peak, with a potential slight decline expected as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] Group 2: Seasonal Influences - The specific trend of coal prices during winter needs to be closely monitored, as weather conditions will directly impact short-term price fluctuations [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The fundamental reason for the recent increase in coal prices is the significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May [1] - The medium-term upward trend in coal prices is expected to remain unchanged based on this core change [1]