【固收】利率窄幅震荡，曲线走平——利率债周报

Core Insights - The article discusses the current economic and financial landscape in China, highlighting the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on investment and consumption trends. Group 1: Important Events Commentary - Fiscal data shows that improved inflation has boosted tax revenue year-on-year, with public spending increasingly supporting technology alongside a focus on livelihood areas. Government fund expenditures remain high, which is expected to ensure strong spending in Q4 [4]. - Economic data indicates a year-on-year decline in investment and consumption growth for September, attributed to the "anti-involution" initiative and reduced subsidy effects. A new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool is anticipated to enhance production and manufacturing investment structure, supporting the annual growth target [4]. Group 2: Financial Market Overview - The DR007 interest rate remains low, with slight fluctuations around 1.4%. The overall liquidity is loose, but interbank certificate of deposit yields have risen slightly due to seasonal deposit outflows and limited supply [5]. - In the primary market, local government debt issuance totaled 789.5 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 176 billion yuan. The Ministry of Finance has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support investment expansion [6]. - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 10-year bond yield showing volatility. The bond market is influenced by uncertainties in US-China relations and expectations of interest rate cuts due to marginal declines in economic data [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals is currently low, with weak fundamentals indicating lower returns for the real economy. However, the low coupon and volatility of bonds suggest limited potential for higher overall returns [7]. - On the policy front, the 500 billion yuan allocation for local government debt will support debt resolution and investment expansion, while nearly 300 billion yuan of a new policy financial tool has been deployed to support emerging industries like digital economy and AI [7]. - The overall liquidity is expected to remain loose, although there may be marginal tightening at month-end. The bond market sentiment has improved since Q3, but the main direction remains unclear, with risks of steepening interest rate curves if trade relations improve [8].