Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to resume government bond trading after a nine-month suspension, indicating a shift in market expectations and a need to stabilize the bond market amid rising yields [1][2][3] Group 1: Reasons for Resuming Bond Trading - The resumption is driven by a reversal of the one-sided downward yield expectations, with the 10-year government bond yield rebounding to over 1.8% from a low of 1.6% earlier this year [3][6] - The PBOC's decision aligns with the need to increase its bond holdings, which have significantly decreased during the suspension, as part of its goal to build a strong central bank and financial system [1][7][10] - The bond market's overall stability is crucial, especially in the context of a strong stock market, to prevent negative feedback loops that could exacerbate market volatility [1][11] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcement, bond yields across various maturities fell by approximately 3 basis points, reflecting market optimism about the resumption [1][11] - Analysts suggest that while the resumption may provide temporary relief and stabilize the market, it may not fundamentally alter the long-term interest rate trends due to broader economic factors [11][12] - The PBOC's approach to bond trading will likely involve a mix of strategies, including "buy short, sell long," to manage yield curves effectively [10][11] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of macro-prudential management in observing and assessing bond market conditions, indicating a proactive stance in maintaining financial stability [12][13] - The current liquidity transmission mechanism involves multiple layers, with non-bank institutions facing challenges in accessing funds, highlighting the need for structural adjustments in liquidity provision [13]
央行将恢复国债买卖操作：为什么，有何影响？
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-27 13:49