“潮玩之王”业绩狂飙，股价却大幅回调

Core Insights - The LABUBU secondary market prices have plummeted, leading to a significant decline in the stock price of Pop Mart, known as the "king of trendy toys," which has dropped over 30% from its historical peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over HKD 100 billion [1][3] - Despite the stock price decline, Pop Mart's fundamentals remain strong, with a projected revenue increase of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, driven by explosive growth in both domestic and international markets [1][6] - Following the earnings announcement, several brokerage firms raised their profit forecasts for Pop Mart, maintaining optimistic long-term valuations and recommending buy or hold ratings [1][6] Market Dynamics - The LABUBU series was once a "hard currency" in the second-hand market, with prices reaching as high as HKD 1.08 million for unique items, but recent supply increases have caused prices to crash to around HKD 200 [2][3] - Pop Mart's strategy to increase supply and optimize distribution channels has led to a significant drop in secondary market prices, which has raised concerns among investors [4][6] - The company's proactive approach aims to stabilize prices and enhance consumer experience, although it has temporarily driven speculative funds out of the market [4] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's Q3 2025 financial report indicates a substantial revenue growth of 245% to 250%, with the Chinese market growing by 185% to 190% and international markets, particularly the Americas, experiencing a staggering growth of 1265% to 1270% [6][8] - Brokerage firms have adjusted their revenue forecasts for Pop Mart, with the average projected revenue for 2025 rising from approximately HKD 300 billion to nearly HKD 350 billion [6][8] Investor Sentiment - There is a notable divergence in investment behavior, with mainland investors showing strong interest in "bottom-fishing" during the stock price decline, increasing their holdings from 1.92 billion shares to 2.12 billion shares [9] - In contrast, foreign investors have been reducing their stakes in Pop Mart, with significant sell-offs reported by major institutions like UBS and HSBC [9][14][17]