Market Overview - The market is experiencing fresh record highs, driven by positive developments in the US-China trade negotiations and expectations surrounding mega-cap tech earnings and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [2][3][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a year-over-year increase of 3%, which was slightly below estimates, contributing to the market's upward movement [3][4][8] Economic Indicators - Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year yield moving above 4%, reflecting optimism about potential trade deals and their positive implications for the economy and labor market [6][7] - The CPI report has led to a more favorable market sentiment, although concerns about inflation persist among some Federal Reserve officials [8][19] Federal Reserve Outlook - A rate cut is expected during the upcoming FOMC meeting, but the outlook beyond this week remains uncertain, with varying opinions among Fed officials regarding inflation and labor market risks [8][19][20] - The focus will be on comments from Fed Chair Powell and other committee members, particularly regarding their views on inflation and labor market conditions [16][17][18] Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 remains in a bullish trend, having held above its 50-day simple moving average despite recent pullbacks [10][11][12] - The market may experience periodic corrections, but the overall trend is expected to continue unless significant changes in fundamentals occur [12][14] Sector-Specific Insights - The performance of mega-cap tech companies is crucial, as any decline in capital expenditures could signal potential risks to the market's current bullish narrative [13][15] - The bond market is closely watching the Fed's language and any indications of future rate adjustments, particularly in light of the upcoming economic projections [15][19]
Bullish Uptrend to Begin Week Ahead of Tech Earnings, Fed Decision and Geopolitical Trade Talks