UDR Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Insights - UDR Inc. is expected to announce its third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, with anticipated growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share [1] Company Performance - In the last reported quarter, UDR achieved an adjusted FFO per share of 64 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 62 cents, driven by year-over-year growth in same-store net operating income (NOI) due to a higher effective blended lease rate [2] - Over the past four quarters, UDR's FFO as adjusted per share met or surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on four occasions, with an average surprise of 0.81% [3] Market Conditions - The U.S. apartment market experienced a slowdown in Q3 2025, with effective asking rents declining by 0.3% from July to September, marking the first rent cut during this period since 2009 [4] - Approximately 637,000 market-rate apartments were absorbed in the year ending Q3 2025, a decrease from nearly 784,900 units absorbed in the previous quarter, attributed to sluggish new lease activity amid weaker job growth and cautious consumer behavior [5] - Nationally, about 474,800 units were completed over the past year, with 105,500 units completed in Q3, leading to increased competition among landlords and a slight drop in occupancy rates to 95.4% [6] Rental Trends - To attract renters, 22% of properties offered discounts averaging 6.2%, indicating a shift towards prioritizing occupancy over pricing power [7] - Rent declines varied by region, with significant drops in markets that experienced aggressive construction, while areas with lighter construction, such as the Midwest and Northeast, fared better [8] Projections for UDR - UDR's third-quarter results are expected to benefit from its diverse portfolio of A/B quality properties, with projected rental income growth of 2.3% year-over-year and same-property NOI expected to increase by 4.3% [9][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UDR's quarterly revenues is $430.08 million, reflecting a 2.36% year-over-year rise, with FFO per share expected to be in the range of 62-64 cents [13] - The consensus estimate for FFO as adjusted per share has remained unchanged at 63 cents over the past three months, indicating a 1.61% year-over-year increase [14] Earnings Prediction - UDR has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a potential surprise in FFO per share for the upcoming quarter [15]