UnitedHealth Q3 Preview: Will Warren Buffett's Insurance Bet Keep Paying Off?

Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth Group's stock has experienced a rally in the third quarter, influenced by Warren Buffett's investment, with upcoming earnings reports potentially impacting share performance [1][6]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict UnitedHealth will report third-quarter revenue of $113.06 billion, an increase from $100.82 billion in the same quarter last year [2]. - The company has missed revenue estimates for five consecutive quarters, following a streak of 15 consecutive beats [2]. - Expected earnings per share for the third quarter are $2.79, down from $7.15 in the previous year [2][3]. Analyst Insights - Analysts have been raising price targets for UnitedHealth stock ahead of earnings, with notable increases from firms like Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mizuho, and Barclays [4][6]. - Baird analyst Michael Ha expressed caution regarding the Optum Health division, citing potential headwinds from government changes to Medicare Advantage, estimating an $11 billion impact over three years [5]. Market Reactions - Following Berkshire Hathaway's stake announcement, UnitedHealth shares have rallied over 30%, although they remain 44% below their November 2024 highs [6]. - The stock has historically declined by an average of about 10% after the last four quarterly earnings reports [7]. Key Items to Watch - Buffett's stake in UnitedHealth, valued at $1.84 billion, could serve as a validation point during the earnings call [8][9]. - Investors will be attentive to any commentary regarding pricing pressures from the White House, particularly concerning the proposed TrumpRx platform, which could affect UnitedHealth's Optum Rx division [11][12]. - Analysts will also look for guidance updates, as the company had previously suspended its 2025 performance outlook [13].