Caterpillar(US:CAT) ZACKSยท2025-10-27 16:15Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is expected to report lower year-over-year earnings despite modest revenue growth due to higher costs from tariff-related pressures [1][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is $16.75 billion, reflecting a 3.98% year-over-year increase, while earnings are projected to decline by 12.6% to $4.52 per share [2][6] Revenue and Earnings Projections - Revenues are projected to rise 3.98% to $16.75 billion, supported by volume gains across segments [2][6] - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by 2.59% over the past 60 days, indicating a decline from the previous year [2] Earnings Surprise History - Caterpillar's earnings have outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimates in one of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of -1.01% [3][4] Segment Performance Expectations - Resource Industries segment expected external sales of $2.95 billion, a 0.4% year-over-year increase, with a projected operating profit of $615.7 million [11] - Construction Industries segment projected external sales of $6.72 billion, indicating a 6.4% growth, with an operating profit of $1.55 billion [12][13] - Energy and Transportation segment expected external sales of $6.1 billion, suggesting a 1.7% rise, with an operating profit of $1.53 billion [14][15] Cost and Margin Analysis - Tariffs are estimated to have increased costs by $500-$600 million, leading to a projected operating margin of 15.8%, down from 20% in the same quarter last year [6][10] - Adjusted operating income is expected to decrease by 19% year-over-year to $2.62 billion [10] Market Context - The manufacturing sector remained in contraction through Q3 2025, with the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index below 50% for most months [7] - Caterpillar's backlog stood at $37.5 billion at the beginning of Q3 2025, which, along with higher aftermarket parts and service revenues, is expected to support top-line growth [8]