Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-27 16:15Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a doubling of domestic energy storage installation growth in the coming year, marking the beginning of a new lithium battery cycle, with significant investment opportunities in energy storage batteries, system integration, and key components like PCS [1][2][14]. Group 1: Energy Storage Market Dynamics - The total demand for lithium batteries is expected to exceed 2700 GWh next year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30%, and energy storage battery demand alone is projected to surpass 900 GWh [2][16]. - The bidding environment for energy storage projects is improving, with a total of 255.8 GWh of new bids recorded from January to September this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 97.7% [3][6]. - The annual bidding volume is expected to exceed 360 GWh, driven by strong demand and a favorable bidding season in Q4 [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities exist in energy storage batteries, system integration, and PCS, with the battery segment currently facing shortages and potential price increases [17]. - The economic viability of energy storage projects has improved significantly, with many provinces achieving an internal rate of return (IRR) above 8%, and some like Inner Mongolia and Shandong reaching IRR levels of 15% or more [11][14]. Group 3: Policy and Market Support - Various provinces have introduced supportive policies, such as capacity pricing and compensation mechanisms, which enhance the economic returns for energy storage investments [11][12]. - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements has shifted investment sentiment from "I have to invest" to "I want to invest," indicating a robust demand for energy storage projects driven by social capital [7][10]. Group 4: Regional Project Distribution - A total of 505 energy storage projects have been announced across various provinces, with a total capacity of 85.59 GW/250.1 GWh, highlighting strong investment activity in regions like Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Shandong [10][11]. - Inner Mongolia has released multiple project lists, with significant capacities and active participation from major energy groups, indicating a strong local investment climate [10].