How earnings and a potential US-China trade deal are driving markets

Core Insights - Corporate profits are stable, with S&P 500 net profit margins above the 5-year average for six consecutive quarters, and analysts expect this trend to continue into next year [1][3] Earnings Performance - The earnings season has been solid, particularly for financials and money center banks, driven by trading and investment banking [3] - Industrial companies are reporting strong earnings, supported by demand for AI infrastructure [3] - Tech earnings are anticipated to be a significant market driver this week, with high expectations set [4][5] Market Reactions - Recent earnings reports, such as those from GE Vernova, showed volatility, with stocks initially gapping up but then selling off sharply before stabilizing [8] - Market positioning and options trading are influencing stock movements at both individual and index levels [8] Economic Indicators - There are shifting expectations regarding China and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could impact market dynamics [4][10] - The removal of trade-related overhangs is allowing markets to focus on earnings rather than trade headlines [11][12] Consumer Behavior - The economy is holding up well, with a K-shaped recovery observed; higher-income consumers are faring better than lower-income consumers, who are struggling with inflation [16] - There is caution in hiring, but mass layoffs are not being reported [16] Federal Reserve Outlook - A 25 basis point rate cut is largely expected, with discussions around the end of quantitative tightening (QT) gaining traction [17][18] - Markets are pricing in further rate cuts, with expectations for a third cut in January being slightly better than a coin flip [20]