Can Centene's Q3 Earnings Escape Industry's Cost Headwinds?

Core Insights - Centene Corporation (CNC) is expected to report a loss of $0.21 per share for Q3 2025, with revenues projected at $47.62 billion, reflecting a year-over-year revenue growth of 13.3% despite a significant earnings decline of 113% [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - The earnings estimate for Q3 2025 has remained stable over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year plunge in earnings, while revenue projections suggest growth [2][3]. - For the full year 2025, Centene's revenue is estimated at $190.45 billion, representing a 16.8% increase year-over-year, but the EPS is projected to decrease by 76.4% [3][4]. Membership and Revenue Trends - Total commercial memberships are expected to increase by 26.6% year-over-year, with Medicare PDP memberships also showing nearly 17% growth [6][7]. - However, total membership is projected to decline by 2.2% year-over-year, primarily due to decreases in Medicaid and Medicare memberships [8]. - The consensus estimate for service revenues indicates a 7.2% decline from the previous year, while investment and other income is expected to fall by 11.7% [9]. Cost and Expense Outlook - Centene's medical costs are anticipated to remain high, with the health benefits ratio expected to rise to 93%, indicating a reduced portion of premiums available after claims [10]. - Total operating expenses are projected to increase by more than 15% in Q3, which may negatively impact the bottom line [10].