Rise in AUM Balance Likely to Support Ameriprise's Q3 Earnings

Core Insights - Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, with anticipated year-over-year increases in revenues and earnings [1][11] - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 2.30% [2] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for management and financial advice fees is $2.75 billion, reflecting a 7% increase from the prior year [3] - Distribution fees are estimated at $553 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 7.8 [4] - Other revenues are projected at $134 million, suggesting a growth of 2.3% [4] Investment Income and Charges - The consensus estimate for net investment income is $834 million, representing a decline of 10.7% year-over-year [5] - Premiums, policy, and contract charges are estimated at $374 million, indicating an 8.6% decrease [5] Assets Under Management - Total AUM and AUA are expected to reach $1.62 trillion, marking a 7.4% increase from the previous year [6] Expense Management - While cost management initiatives have controlled general and administrative expenses, overall costs are expected to rise due to technology upgrades and new hires, with total adjusted operating expenses estimated at $3.27 billion [7][11] Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for earnings is $9.60 per share, reflecting an 8.7% increase from the prior year, with total sales estimated at $4.52 billion, suggesting a 4% year-over-year increase [12] Earnings Surprise Potential - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.55%, indicating a high likelihood of beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings [8] - Ameriprise currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [9]