资本市场“十四五”改革回顾与“十五五”前景展望

Core Viewpoint - China's capital market has undergone significant institutional reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing both scale and quality, and is expected to play a crucial role in supporting the real economy, resource allocation for innovation, and driving economic transformation in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][8]. Financing Reforms - The capital market has achieved multi-dimensional balanced development, with total financing through stock and bond markets reaching 57.5 trillion yuan, and the direct financing ratio increasing to 31.6%, up by 2.8 percentage points from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - The quality and efficiency of financing have improved, with the new "National Nine Articles" set to enhance listing standards and the evaluation system for innovative attributes, leading to a significant filtering effect in the IPO market [2]. - From August 2023 to August 2025, approximately 560 companies withdrew their IPO applications, indicating a stronger market entry filter [2]. Market Liquidity and Efficiency - A-share market's average daily trading volume is projected to reach 1.67 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.10%, reflecting improved pricing efficiency and resource allocation capabilities [3]. Investment Reforms - The stability of the market has gradually increased, with the establishment of a differentiated development pattern among various boards, providing comprehensive listing services for innovative enterprises [4]. - The market has shown strong performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index leading global markets with respective increases of 61.87%, 45.38%, and 39.58% [4]. - The technology sector, particularly in communications, electronics, and computing, has seen significant growth, with AI technology becoming a primary investment focus [4]. Institutional Reforms - The market has established a more orderly "survival of the fittest" ecosystem, with 207 companies achieving smooth delisting during the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the delisting rate increasing from 0.28% in 2019 to 0.97% in 2024 [6]. - The merger and acquisition market has been revitalized, with 230 major asset restructuring cases disclosed since the introduction of the "Merger Six Articles" [6]. Investor Returns and Market Openness - Companies distributed a total of 10.6 trillion yuan in cash dividends and share buybacks over the past five years, an increase of over 80% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The capital market has made strides in opening up, with the removal of QFII and RQFII quota restrictions and the expansion of interconnectivity mechanisms, leading to a net inflow of foreign capital into domestic stocks and funds [7]. Future Role of Capital Market - The capital market is expected to enhance financing efficiency and support the construction of a modern industrial system and high-level technological self-reliance during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [9]. - It will focus on improving the value discovery function and resource allocation efficiency, implementing strict delisting systems to enhance the quality of listed companies [10]. - The market's internal stability will be bolstered by increasing the scale of long-term capital investments and promoting a "investor-centric" approach among listed companies [10]. - Continuous improvement of the legal environment for the capital market will enhance investor confidence and ensure a stable and predictable market [11].