迈向高质量发展新阶段 资本市场“十四五”改革回顾与“十五五”前景展望

Core Viewpoint - China's capital market has undergone significant institutional reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing both scale and quality, and is expected to play a crucial role in supporting the real economy, facilitating innovation resource allocation, and driving economic transformation in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][8]. Financing Reforms - The capital market has achieved multi-dimensional balanced development, with total financing through stock and bond markets reaching 57.5 trillion yuan, and the direct financing ratio increasing to 31.6%, up by 2.8 percentage points from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - The quality and efficiency of financing have improved, with the new "National Nine Articles" set to enhance listing standards and the evaluation system for innovative attributes, leading to a significant filtering effect in the IPO market [2]. - From August 2023 to August 2025, approximately 560 companies withdrew their IPO applications, indicating a strengthened market entry filter [2]. Market Performance - The A-share market is expected to see an average daily trading volume of 1.67 trillion yuan from September 2024 to September 2025, with a turnover rate of 4.10%, reflecting improved market pricing efficiency and resource allocation [3]. - The capital market has shown strong performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index rising by 61.87%, 45.38%, and 39.58% respectively, leading global stock indices [4]. Stability and Regulation - The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index decreased to 15.9%, down by 2.8 percentage points from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating enhanced market resilience [5]. - A total of 207 companies achieved smooth delisting during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the delisting rate increasing from 0.28% in 2019 to 0.97% in 2024, reflecting a more dynamic market environment [6]. Investor Returns - The new "National Nine Articles" established stricter regulations on share buybacks and dividends, leading to a significant increase in cash dividends and share repurchases totaling 10.6 trillion yuan over the past five years, an increase of over 80% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The capital market has seen a reversal in foreign capital outflows, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in foreign holdings of domestic stocks and funds in the first half of 2025 [7]. Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system and enhancing technological self-reliance, with the capital market expected to play a pivotal role in supporting these initiatives [9][10]. - The focus will be on improving financing efficiency, enhancing the value discovery function of the capital market, and ensuring a stable investment environment to support long-term growth [10][12][13].