芝加哥联储模型估算美国就业已明显降温 失业率维持在4.3%

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed's model indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate for October is approximately 4.3%, consistent with August's official reading, suggesting a cooling labor market without signs of severe deterioration [1] Group 1: Unemployment Rate Insights - The Chicago Fed previously estimated the unrounded unemployment rate for September at 4.34%, compared to 4.35% in August [1] - Due to the absence of official unemployment data for September, the model relies on the previous month's real-time estimate to project October's figures [1] - The Fed warns that this method may accumulate errors if the government shutdown persists, but expects limited impact in the next one to three months [1] Group 2: Labor Market Trends - The current estimates align with a slight upward trend in unemployment claims in some states, indicating a noticeable cooling in the U.S. job market without entering a recessionary decline [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, as a precaution against economic slowdown and data gaps, while also preemptively addressing potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [1]