商品与金融属性共振 沪铜估值中枢上移

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices in Shanghai reached a new high in October, driven by both commodity and financial attributes, with supply disruptions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts playing significant roles [1][2][3] Supply Side Summary - Major copper mines like Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg have faced partial or complete shutdowns since 2025, shifting global copper supply from a tight balance to a shortage [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) hit a historical low of -42.6 USD/dry ton as of October 25, indicating fierce competition for copper resources among smelters [1] - Despite lower TC, large smelters maintain cash flow due to good returns from by-products like sulfuric acid, but potential declines in by-product prices could lead to cash flow losses and temporary production cuts [1] Demand Side Summary - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.90% increase year-on-year, with China accounting for 10.62 million tons, up 11.05% [2] - The recent rise in copper prices to over 80,000 CNY/ton has somewhat suppressed downstream demand, but the market's negative feedback has been relatively mild compared to previous price surges [2] - The acceptance of high copper prices by downstream markets is increasing as supply tightness becomes a consensus [2][3] Macro Factors Summary - The macroeconomic focus is on U.S.-China tariffs and overseas interest rate cuts, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The recent U.S. CPI data indicates manageable inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts, which are seen as a primary driver for rising copper prices [2] - The COMEX copper market has maintained a high premium over LME copper, attracting copper inflows into the U.S. and tightening supply in non-U.S. regions [3] Overall Market Outlook - A robust fundamental backdrop and expectations of interest rate cuts support upward trends in copper prices, with supply shortages unlikely to reverse in the short term [3] - Strong demand from sectors like electricity and renewable energy provides marginal growth, while the market's increasing acceptance of high copper prices offers solid support for the price midpoint in the medium to long term [3]