国泰海通：煤炭板块周期底部确认 多因素共振供需逆转

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in the second quarter of 2025, with a reversal in the supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Since the price increase began on September 15, coal prices have exceeded 770 yuan per ton as of last week, showing an unexpected upward trend driven by multiple favorable factors [1] - From a short-term perspective, current coal prices are nearing a short-term peak, and a slight decline may occur as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] Group 2: Weather Impact - The specific trend of coal prices during winter will require continuous monitoring of this year's weather conditions, as weather intensity will directly affect short-term price fluctuations [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The core reason for the recent rise in coal prices is a fundamental reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not change [1]