Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-28 00:24Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, leading to a projected global supply growth rate of only 1.9% next year, while demand is expected to grow by approximately 2.3%, resulting in a widening supply-demand gap of 800,000 tons and a potential increase in global LME aluminum prices to over $3,200 per ton next year [1][2][3] Supply Analysis - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is close to its limit, with future supply growth primarily expected from overseas projects [2] - New production capacity in overseas regions, particularly Indonesia, is anticipated to contribute to supply growth, although progress is slow due to policy restrictions and infrastructure constraints [2] - Expected new production in Indonesia for 2025-2027 is 279,000 tons, 685,000 tons, and 1,000,000 tons respectively, while the recovery of previously reduced capacity in Europe and the U.S. is projected to add 412,000 tons, 397,000 tons, and 408,000 tons over the same period [2] - Global electrolytic aluminum supply is forecasted to be 73.91 million tons and 75.34 million tons in 2025 and 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.29% and 1.93% respectively [2] Demand Analysis - Despite current pessimism regarding downstream consumption of electrolytic aluminum, domestic demand is expected to grow by approximately 2.1% in 2026, even under scenarios of declining solar installation and modest growth in automotive production [3] - Overseas demand is projected to increase by about 2.5% in 2026, driven by the recovery of global manufacturing [3] - Overall, global electrolytic aluminum demand is expected to grow by around 2.3% in 2026, maintaining a relatively optimistic outlook [3] - The supply-demand gap for global primary aluminum is estimated to be -591,000 tons and -843,000 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expectations that the LME aluminum price may exceed $3,200 per ton in 2026 [3] - Due to domestic supply constraints, the price difference between domestic and international markets is expected to narrow significantly, leading to stronger domestic aluminum prices [3]