Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-10-28 00:33Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the global supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow significantly in 2024, with a projected increase of only 1.9% due to the domestic production capacity nearing its limit in China [1] Supply Analysis - The global supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is forecasted to be only 1.9% in 2024, a substantial deceleration compared to the growth rates in 2024/2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas potential production and resumption projects in the context of limited domestic capacity [1] Demand Analysis - Global demand for electrolytic aluminum is anticipated to grow at approximately 2.3% in 2024, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [1] - The overall supply-demand gap is expected to widen to 800,000 tons [1] Price Outlook - The global LME aluminum price is projected to rise above $3,200 per ton in 2024 due to the increasing supply-demand gap [1]