三季度仔猪价格跌幅超48% 四季度或超跌反弹
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-28 00:52

Core Insights - The domestic price of 7 kg piglets experienced a significant decline, with a maximum drop of over 48% in Q3 2025, attributed to an oversupply of piglets due to increased breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [1][2] - The price of 7 kg piglets fell from 431.67 CNY per head at the beginning of July to 220.17 CNY per head by the end of September, dropping below the industry average cost line of 280 CNY per head [1][2] - The market is expected to see a rebound in piglet prices in November and December, potentially reaching 180-220 CNY per head, as the supply-demand balance begins to stabilize [1][5] Supply Side Dynamics - The continuous increase in breeding sow inventory has set the stage for price declines, with a recorded increase of 0.58%, 0.71%, and 1.07% in breeding sow inventory from December 2024 to February 2025 [2] - Enhanced production efficiency among breeding sows has led to a higher output of piglets, exacerbating the oversupply situation in the market [2] Demand Side Challenges - The demand for piglets has been significantly weakened since late July, with piglet fattening operations entering a loss phase, resulting in an average loss of 278.87 CNY per head by September 30 [2][3] - The historical data indicates that the period from February to March is typically a low season for pork consumption, further reducing demand for piglets [3] Q4 Price Forecast - The price of piglets is anticipated to follow a "first decline, then rebound" trajectory in Q4, with October expected to continue the downward trend due to high supply levels [4] - The supply of weaned piglets is projected to increase in October, maintaining the supply-demand imbalance and exerting downward pressure on prices [4] Potential for Price Recovery - A rebound in prices is expected in November and December, coinciding with a seasonal recovery in demand and potential restocking by farmers [5] - The impact of winter weather on piglet survival rates may also contribute to a tighter supply, supporting price recovery [5]