Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank released an alternative model estimating the U.S. unemployment rate at approximately 4.3% for October 2025, consistent with the official rate from August, indicating a moderate cooling of the labor market without signs of sharp deterioration [1] - The model previously estimated the September unemployment rate at 4.34%, slightly lower than August's 4.35%, as the official data was not released due to the government shutdown [1] - The model integrates various private data sources, including job platforms and payroll processing services, showing a high correlation with historical official unemployment rates [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, responding to weakened economic momentum and uncertainty in the current "data vacuum" environment [2] - Analysts suggest that an early rate cut could help mitigate potential shocks if the unemployment rate suddenly rises due to economic downturns, which could significantly alter the labor market landscape [2]
政府停摆致官方数据缺失 芝加哥联储模型估10月失业率持稳于4.3%
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-28 01:14