Market Overview - On October 27, PTA futures surged significantly after news from an industry seminar, with the spot market showing a general trading atmosphere and spot basis stabilizing. This week, transactions occurred at a discount of 80-82 for the January contract, with price discussions ranging between 4440-4565 [1] - The main spot basis is at 01-81 [1] Profitability - As of October 27, the PTA spot processing fee is around 112 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 contracts are 259 CNY/ton and 276 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 24, PTA operating rates reached 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. A new 3 million ton PTA facility in East China began production last weekend and has started output [3] - Demand: As of October 24, polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 27, the price of polyester filament saw slight increases, with overall production and sales being weak over the weekend but acceptable on Monday. The terminal sales atmosphere is relatively good, and after last week's downstream restocking, filament factory inventories are at a relatively low level, indicating potential price support. News of PTA's anti-internal competition has driven raw material prices, leading to some downstream replenishment, with expectations that filament prices may rise [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA facility operating rates and the commissioning of new facilities, the overall spot basis for PTA is weak. Despite continuous compression of PTA processing fees and a significant boost in futures prices due to industry seminar news, the rebound potential for PTA is limited until substantial policies are implemented and given the weak supply-demand expectations for crude oil [4] - The strategy suggests monitoring pressure above 4600 for long positions and considering reducing positions on rallies; a rolling hedge strategy is recommended for TA1-5 [4]
PTA：成本重心抬升 但弱预期下反弹空间受限
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-28 02:23