Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.25%, the 10-year main contract down 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.05%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.8430% and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 2.2115% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 168 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 3.2 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit institutions remained stable around 1.32%, while non-bank institutions reported borrowing rates in the range of 1.43%-1.45% [2] - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding funding stability, despite potential short-term liquidity tightening due to tax periods and month-end factors [2] Policy Developments - The 2025 Financial Street Forum opened with significant statements from key financial leaders, including the central bank governor, who emphasized a supportive monetary policy stance and the resumption of government bond trading operations [3] - The central bank is exploring measures to support personal credit recovery and is working on a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent signals from the Financial Street Forum suggest a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, leading to a potential increase in bond market sentiment [4] - The 10 and 30-year government bonds may experience a decline of 4-5 basis points, with expectations for the T2512 contract to potentially break resistance levels [4] - A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, while attention should also be given to positive spread strategies due to rising internal rates of return [4]
国债期货：宽货币预期增强 期债预期走强
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-28 02:23