Core Viewpoint - Minglue Technology is launching a global IPO on October 23, with an expected listing on November 3, aiming to raise between 1.02 billion to 1.17 billion HKD, but faces significant financial instability and declining investor confidence [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company has shown unstable profitability, with net profits fluctuating dramatically from 1.64 billion RMB in 2022 to a projected loss of 20.3 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Research and development (R&D) expenditures have decreased significantly, from 59.2% of revenue in 2022 to only 23.4% in 2025, indicating a weakening of core technological capabilities [4][5]. IPO Details - The IPO is priced at 141 HKD per share, with a base issuance of approximately 7.22 million shares, potentially increasing to about 8.3 million shares with the green shoe option, leading to a market capitalization of around 20.4 billion HKD [1]. - The use of proceeds from the IPO includes 35% for enhancing R&D capabilities, 40% for product development, 15% for marketing and sales team expansion, and 10% for working capital [1]. Market Sentiment - Investor confidence has waned, as evidenced by a significant drop in valuation from 30.5 billion USD in 2020 to 5.4 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a decline of over 80% [5][6]. - The cornerstone investor lineup for the IPO includes seven investors, with a total investment of 59 million USD, but the quality of these investors is questioned, as many lack significant market influence [7][8]. Challenges Ahead - The company faces high entry barriers due to its dual-class share structure, which complicates its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program, requiring a market cap of at least 20 billion HKD and a trading volume threshold [8]. - The extended lock-up period of 270 days for cornerstone investors indicates a lack of confidence in the company's immediate prospects, as it aims to prevent stock price volatility [8][9]. Institutional Demand - The IPO's structure, with nine underwriters, suggests potential insufficient demand from institutional investors, leading to the opening of international placement channels to attract retail investors [9][10]. - The high subscription rate of 1388 times as of October 27 indicates strong retail interest, but historical performance of similar IPOs raises concerns about post-listing stock performance [10].
明略科技启动全球发售：2025年预计录得大额亏损 承销商扎堆国际配售通道开放或暗示机构需求不足