全球主要塑料生产商：新兴经济体将是塑料行业重要增长点

Core Insights - The plastic industry is currently facing a prolonged downturn characterized by weak demand and overcapacity, with global polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices under pressure as the market enters its fourth year of decline [1][2] - Despite the challenges, emerging economies are seen as a significant growth opportunity for the plastic sector, with expectations of robust demand growth in regions like South Asia and Southeast Asia [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - The global PE market remains oversupplied, but optimism is growing due to the shutdown of several production facilities this year, which may aid in industry recovery [1] - The report indicates that PE demand in South Asia is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from 2024 to 2029, while Southeast Asia is projected to grow at 5.1% [1] - The PP market is anticipated to see a modest demand growth of 3.6% in 2024, reaching 95.7 million tons, despite a bearish outlook for prices until at least 2027 [2] Group 2: Future Growth Drivers - Emerging markets are identified as key growth drivers for the plastic industry, with increasing demand for polymers fueled by population trends and end-use applications [3] - The demand for composite materials in clean energy sectors, such as wind and solar, is expected to surge, contributing to the overall growth of the plastic market [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights that by 2030, the share of petrochemical feedstocks in crude oil consumption is projected to rise from 15.8% to 17.4%, driven by increased plastic demand [3] Group 3: Regional Consumption Trends - Industrialized countries account for 12% of the global population but represent 40% of global plastic demand, while emerging markets have seen a 177% increase in plastic consumption since 2000 [4] - The growth in emerging markets is linked to faster GDP and population growth, with projections indicating a global GDP growth of 3.0% to 3.1% from 2025 to 2026 [4] - As urbanization and industrialization continue in emerging markets, the gap in per capita plastic consumption compared to the U.S. and Europe is expected to narrow [4]