麦肯锡对能源系统认知发生大转变

Core Insights - McKinsey's latest report indicates that fossil fuels will still account for nearly half of global energy consumption by 2050, marking a significant shift in understanding energy systems over the past decade [2][3] - The report emphasizes that new low-carbon technologies face challenges in cost competitiveness and financing, hindering their large-scale adoption [2] - Geopolitical uncertainties, policy changes, and rising electricity demand are reshaping the energy landscape, leading to an extended use of fossil fuels beyond 2050 [2] Summary by Categories Energy Consumption - By 2050, oil, gas, and coal are projected to account for 41% to 55% of global energy consumption, which is lower than current levels but higher than previous expectations [2] - Natural gas is expected to see the strongest demand growth in power generation and end-use consumption, primarily as a substitute for high-emission fuels [2] Low-Carbon Technologies - Key alternative fuels, such as green hydrogen, are unlikely to be widely adopted before 2040 due to cost issues, making it difficult for sustainable fuels to compete with traditional fuels in the short term [3] - The report acknowledges that energy security and reliability have taken precedence over sustainability amid geopolitical turmoil and the lack of competitive low-carbon technologies [3] Investment and Policy Implications - The findings lend more realism to calls from OPEC for continued investment in oil and gas, contrasting with previous expectations that focused on net-zero goals rather than affordability, security, and reliability [3]