焦炭：10月焦炭价格偏强运行，11月持续涨价难度较大

Core Viewpoint - In October, domestic coke prices showed a strong upward trend due to tight coking coal supply and increased demand from downstream steel mills for inventory replenishment. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of continued price increases for coke in November is low, with potential downward pressure expected after mid-November [1][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - In October, domestic coke prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY per ton, reaching 1575-1645 CNY per ton for Shanxi's first-grade dry coke by October 27, marking a 7.33% increase from the end of September [3][4]. - The primary reason for the increase in coke prices is the rise in raw material coking coal prices and strong downstream demand [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply has tightened, leading to higher prices and increased costs, which support coke prices. During the National Day holiday, some coal mines suspended operations, and post-holiday, production was limited due to environmental checks, resulting in a strong cost support for coke prices [4][8]. - Many coking plants are currently operating below the breakeven point, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [4][7]. Group 3: Downstream Steel Mill Activity - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan reached 90.24% as of October 23, the highest level of the year, indicating strong demand for coke. However, due to rising coking coal prices, steel mills are experiencing reduced profits, which may affect their purchasing behavior [7][8]. - Steel mills have low coke inventory levels, with the average available days of coke inventory at 7.18 days, slightly down from early October. This low inventory level has led to active purchasing behavior from steel mills [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The cost support from coking coal is expected to continue, but the overall demand from steel mills may weaken as seasonal demand for steel decreases. The turning point for coke prices will depend on the extent of maintenance and production cuts in steel mills, particularly after mid-November [8].