PTA：反内卷预期增强 行情上涨

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is experiencing a rebound due to expectations of production cuts amid low processing fees, despite a reality of ample supply [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The PTA spot supply is currently abundant, with 2.7 million tons of new PTA capacity in East China starting trial production, leading to a fluctuation in the PTA spot basis around -80 to -85 yuan/ton [1]. - The upcoming PTA industry conference is expected to boost market sentiment, as major suppliers are anticipated to discuss potential production cuts [1][3]. - As of October 27, the average processing fee for PTA in October is 154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15% month-on-month, indicating significant production losses for PTA companies [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - An increase in PTA maintenance is predicted; however, the effect on the market may be limited due to the relatively sufficient supply of PTA [3][5]. - The new PTA capacity is expected to add supply pressure, especially as the demand season comes to an end, leading to a likely transition from inventory reduction to accumulation in November [5]. - The market sentiment is currently pessimistic for November, reflected in the basis for transactions being -70 yuan/ton [5]. Group 3: Production Cut Implications - The decision on production cuts will be crucial in determining whether PTA inventory accumulates in the short term [6]. - If PTA companies actively reduce production in response to low processing fees, it may prevent inventory accumulation and support PTA prices [6]. - However, if the production cuts are insufficient, the current supply surplus will likely keep the PTA spot basis weak, leading to continued registration of PTA futures [6].