民生证券：AI拉动先进逻辑及存储需求 半导体设备受益

Group 1 - The NAND sector is expected to see increased investment in deposition equipment due to the need for more deposition/etching machines to stack layers, along with a rise in demand for high aspect ratio etching technology and advanced packaging/bonding equipment [1] - Global semiconductor equipment demand is projected to grow, driven by advancements in logic and storage technologies, with total sales expected to reach $125.5 billion by 2025, influenced by AI applications and capacity expansions [1] - China is anticipated to lead global spending on 300mm equipment, with total investments reaching $94 billion between 2026 and 2028, further driving demand for etching, deposition, bonding, and coating equipment [1] Group 2 - AI demand is expected to significantly boost the logic and storage markets, with data center investments projected to grow from $17 billion in 2020 to $45.3 billion by 2028 [2] - OpenAI plans to deploy a total of 6 GW of AMD GPU computing power, with an estimated cost of $50 billion for 1 GW of AI computing power, primarily for chips and supporting data center infrastructure [2] - The overall revenue for AI semiconductors is forecasted to grow from $8.2 billion in 2020 to $41.3 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.4% [2] Group 3 - There are limitations in acquiring key semiconductor equipment, with a bipartisan investigation revealing loopholes in supply chain restrictions that allow China to purchase nearly $40 billion worth of advanced chip manufacturing equipment [3] - NVIDIA's founder announced a complete exit from the Chinese market due to U.S. export controls, resulting in a market share drop from 95% to 0% [3] - The demand for domestic AI chips is expected to increase as domestic computing infrastructure advances [3]