Group 1 - Dairy stocks experienced a midday surge, with Yurun Dairy rising by 5.74% to HKD 3.13, Modern Dairy up by 3.36% to HKD 1.23, China Feihe increasing by 1.95% to HKD 4.18, and China Shengmu rising by 1.59% to HKD 0.32 [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that after a four-year decline, raw milk prices have recently stabilized, with the national average price increasing from CNY 3.02/kg on August 1 to CNY 3.04/kg by the end of September, and prices in Ningxia rising from CNY 2.1-2.2/kg to CNY 3.5-3.7/kg [1] - The increase in milk prices is attributed to demand from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day gifts, as well as a natural decrease in supply due to the "heat stress" phase for dairy cows from July to September [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that since September, while some regions have seen a rebound in raw milk prices due to pre-holiday stocking and student milk production demand, overall prices in major production areas remain stable [2] - Current milk prices are still below the cost line, leading to ongoing industry losses and financial pressure from silage, with a 0.18% month-on-month decrease in dairy cow inventory in September, following a 0.2% decline in August, totaling an approximate 8% reduction [2] - Despite short-term support for milk prices from holiday factors, the trend of capacity reduction in dairy companies continues, and the end of the capacity reduction cycle may be nearing, making a price cycle turning point worth anticipating [2]
港股异动 | 乳业股午前普涨 原奶价格近期迎阶段性稳定 行业下半年去化有望提速